May Exports Hit Record High of $87.7 Billion, What's the Outlook for Semiconductor-Led Stocks in H2?

South Korea's May exports reached a record high of $87.75 billion, setting a new monthly historical peak. Most notably, semiconductor exports surged by over 169% compared to the same month last year, accounting for 42% of total exports and proving that the 'AI supercycle' is in full swing.

K-Exports Driven by Semiconductors: AI Investment Supercycle Takes Off

According to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, May exports surpassed $80 billion for the third consecutive month, and the daily average export value exceeded $4 billion for the first time in history. The absolute driving force behind this export boom is semiconductors.

• Explosive Memory Demand: Expanding investments in artificial intelligence (AI) data centers by US Big Tech companies are causing a surge in demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), standard DRAM, and NAND flash.
• Export Share Exceeds 40%: Semiconductor exports in May hit an all-time high of $37.16 billion. A single product category accounting for 42.3% of total exports highlights an extreme concentration.

However, automobile exports showed a contrasting trend, decreasing by 5.9% year-on-year due to a fire at a domestic auto parts supplier and logistical challenges stemming from geopolitical risks in the Middle East. This data serves as a key macroeconomic indicator supporting the current 'hyper-polarized market' seen in domestic stock exchanges like KOSPI and KOSDAQ.

Market Impact and H2 Investment Strategy

Despite massive selling by foreign investors, the KOSPI managed to hit a record high, largely thanks to the strong earnings momentum of large-cap semiconductor stocks. With NVIDIA's announcement of next-generation AI chips and the continued expansion of global AI infrastructure expected in the second half of the year, continuous attention is being drawn to the semiconductor equipment and materials value chain.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q. Will the strong export trend continue into the second half of the year?

As global AI investments expand and coincide with the launch cycle of new smartphones in the second half, it is highly likely that both the unit price and volume of memory semiconductors—our core export item—will increase. Therefore, the upward trend in overall exports is expected to be maintained for the time being.

Q. When will exports in automobiles and other sectors recover?

For automobiles, a gradual recovery is expected once temporary supply disruptions are resolved and the export volume of eco-friendly vehicles to North America expands in the second half. However, whether consumer sentiment weakens due to prolonged high global interest rates remains a variable.