[Deep Dive] Nvidia Q2 Earnings Anticipation: The Watershed of AI Rally and Key Watchpoints

The First Test of the AI Supercycle: Awaiting Nvidia's Q2 Earnings

Global stock markets are squarely focused on Nvidia's Q2 earnings report, scheduled to be released after the market closes on the 26th (local time). This event goes beyond a single company's performance; it is a critical inflection point that will gauge the trajectory of the entire AI semiconductor sector and the sustainability of the AI investment cycle for the second half of the year. Ahead of the release, global semiconductor markets are exhibiting a strong wait-and-see approach, with investment sentiment regarding short-term volatility becoming extremely cautious, as evidenced by Nvidia's recent 7-day consecutive stock price decline.

3 Key Watchpoints for the Market

• Revenue Consensus and Future Guidance: Wall Street projects Nvidia's Q2 revenue at approximately $92 billion, with Earnings Per Share (EPS) around $2.09. Because market expectations have risen significantly compared to the past, simply beating estimates is not enough; the crucial factor determining stock direction is whether the forward-looking revenue guidance for Q3 and Q4 can completely satisfy the market's lofty expectations.
• Demand and Supply Chain for Next-Gen 'Blackwell' Chips: The actual customer demand and supply chain ramp-up status (including TSMC) for the next-generation architectures, 'Blackwell' and 'Rubin' platforms, must be clearly confirmed. Additionally, whether major global tech companies' data center capital expenditures (CAPEX) are being executed as planned without delay will serve as evidence to support future AI chip demand.

Profitability Defense and Chinese Market Variables: The impact of product price increases (estimated at over 15%) driven by rising memory (HBM) and component costs on defending Nvidia's overwhelming gross margins is a major area of scrutiny. Furthermore, how much the Chinese government's approval of H200 AI chip imports will practically contribute to revenue growth in the Asian region is considered an important variable.

Ripple Effects on Semiconductor Stocks and Investment Strategy

The outcome of Nvidia's earnings release is expected to have an immediate ripple effect on the stock prices of major domestic HBM value chain companies like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. If powerful guidance exceeding market expectations is presented, it is highly likely to swiftly quell the 'AI bubble' concerns and reignite a semiconductor bull market. Conversely, amid high valuation pressures, if the guidance falls short of market expectations, a deep price correction across tech stocks could unfold, accompanied by short-term profit-taking sell-offs.

Therefore, investors should not merely check short-term financial figures but meticulously analyze the details of this earnings release as a leading indicator to reaffirm the long-term AI infrastructure investment commitment of global tech leaders.