[In-depth Analysis] Samsung Electronics Earnings: HBM4 Leadership and 2026 Market Share Outlook

AI Server Investment Expansion and Semiconductor Export Surge

As global AI data center investments continue to expand in 2026, the demand for HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), a core component, is increasing explosively. In particular, semiconductor export volumes to the US and China—at the forefront of AI server infrastructure development—have surged year-over-year, driving Samsung Electronics' overall earnings. Coupled with the steep price increases in server memory and commodity DRAM, the memory semiconductor market has entered a structural supercycle expected to last for several years. Consequently, Samsung Electronics is projected to break all-time high earnings records for four consecutive quarters up to the third quarter of 2026.

HBM4 Yield Stabilization and Reclaiming #1 Market Share

The market's primary focus is on whether Samsung Electronics can recover its technological leadership in next-generation memory. Recent data validates that Samsung is demonstrating a clear turnaround, spearheaded by HBM4.

• HBM4 Yield and Supply Expansion: The pace of process improvement has accelerated, bringing the HBM4 yield to the 80% level. Based on this, the company is aggressively expanding its supply share among key global clients like Nvidia and AMD.

Overwhelming Revenue Growth: Total HBM revenue in 2026 is forecast to surge more than threefold year-over-year. Notably, in the second half of 2026, over 50% of the total HBM revenue is expected to be generated from the next-generation HBM4 product, leading profitability improvements.

Market Share Reversal: Major investment bank UBS analyzed that Samsung's market share based on HBM bit shipments will reach 41% in 2026, overtaking competitors to reclaim the top spot. The annual overall HBM market share for 2026 is also estimated to be around 38%.

Resolving Undervaluation and Synergy with Shareholder Returns

The prevailing view in financial investments is that Samsung Electronics' current stock price remains in a heavily undervalued territory, failing to fully reflect this overwhelming earnings growth and the recovery of its position in the HBM market. There is ample room for the long-term earnings improvement trajectory leading up to 2027 to be gradually priced into the valuation. Furthermore, backed by record earnings, a massive new shareholder return policy—estimated by the market to be between 100 trillion and 200 trillion won—is anticipated. Once the scale of shareholder returns materializes, it will act as a core catalyst driving a stock re-rating by inducing strong inflows of foreign and institutional capital. Investors need to respond by closely monitoring the status of HBM client acquisitions and the details of the upcoming shareholder return plans as key indicators.