[Deep Dive] Seoul Apartment Prices Continue Upward Trend: Supply Shortage and Reconstruction Momentum

Bull Market Driven by Supply Shortages and Reconstruction Expectations

In June 2026, the Seoul apartment market is exhibiting a distinct bull run. According to recent press reports and real estate statistics, Seoul apartment sale prices rose by 0.27% in the third week of June compared to the previous week, demonstrating a solid upward trend. The core driver of this rise is a chronic shortage of properties for sale. Notably, the resumption of heavy capital gains taxes for multiple-home owners has caused a sharp decline in market listings, naturally leading to higher asking prices and new real transaction price records.

Concurrently, a powerful factor pushing up the sales market is the steep rise in Jeonse (lease) prices. During the same period, Seoul apartment Jeonse prices surged by 0.30%, recording a high rate of increase. Concerns over the lack of new apartment supply and the concentration of demand in large complexes near subway stations with excellent living conditions are stimulating Jeonse prices. Consequently, real demanders feeling the burden of heightened Jeonse prices are increasingly converting to purchases.

Inflow of Real Demand Amid Regional Polarization

This current upward trend shows differentiated patterns by region. In the Gangbuk area (Seongbuk, Dobong, Eunpyeong) and Seonam area (Guro, Gangseo), real demand from those in their 30s and 40s is steadily flowing into small and medium-sized apartments with relatively lower entry barriers, leading the price increases. Conversely, in areas densely populated with high-priced complexes such as Gangnam-gu, upward transactions are being signed primarily in complexes with ongoing reconstruction projects that offer high price defensiveness. This suggests that the demand for a 'premium single property' remains firm even amidst market and policy uncertainty.

Future Outlook and Investment Implications

The current rise in Seoul apartment prices is highly likely to maintain a strong steady trend for the time being, as it is attributed to structural factors such as supply-demand imbalances rather than short-term phenomena. As expectations for real estate market recovery spread, the upward momentum is also expanding to development beneficiary areas in the outskirts of the metropolitan region, such as Dongtan, Hwaseong, with the entire metropolitan market leading the national upward trend.

However, risk factors that could increase market volatility in the future still exist. Macroeconomic uncertainty and the possibility of stricter government loan regulations could constrain housing purchase sentiment. A wait-and-see attitude among buyers is already being detected in some high-priced apartment or reconstruction-dense areas. Therefore, investors and prospective buyers should carefully approach the market by thoroughly analyzing fundamentals, such as regional supply and demand trends and the reconstruction momentum of individual complexes, rather than engaging in simple speculative buying.