Seoul Apartment Trading Volume Surpasses 4,000: Buying Sentiment Recovers Amid Rising Jeonse Prices

Real Estate Trading Volume Surge: A Signal of Recovering Buyer Sentiment

Seoul's monthly apartment trading volume has recently surpassed 4,000 transactions, marking a significant shift in market dynamics. In the real estate sector, a monthly volume of 4,000 is conventionally interpreted as a key indicator of market recovery. As of the second week of May 2026, the Seoul apartment purchase supply and demand index reached 108.3, hitting its highest level in approximately five years. This data clearly demonstrates that the proportion of prospective buyers now exceeds that of sellers.

Key Drivers: Steep Jeonse Price Hikes and Supply Imbalance

The primary catalyst behind this revived buying sentiment is the relentless upward trend in Jeonse (deposit-based lease) prices. The fallout from Jeonse fraud in the non-apartment sector has driven residential demand heavily toward apartments, leading to a severe shortage of available units.

• Surging Jeonse Demand Index: During the same period, the Jeonse supply and demand index hit 113.7, indicating an extreme scarcity of listings.
• Transition to Purchasing: Burdened by the shift from Jeonse to monthly rent and the steep upward pressure on lease deposits, actual end-users are increasingly pivoting toward purchasing homes outright.

Lack of New Supply: With the volume of new apartment move-ins falling short of expectations, the supply-demand imbalance is unlikely to be resolved in the short term.

Consequently, the rising cost of renting is inversely supporting the floor of the sales market and acting as a powerful catalyst for increased trading volume.

Implications and Outlook for Investors

The current market exhibits distinct buying interest concentrated in core areas, supported by abundant market liquidity. There are also indications that capital gains generated from other asset classes, such as the equities market, are partially flowing into real estate. However, it is crucial to note that not all regions are on the same upward trajectory.

While complexes in Seoul with reconstruction potential or superior location competitiveness are seeing price increases alongside rising transaction volumes, provincial areas continue to struggle with the burden of unsold inventory and excess supply. As regional polarization intensifies, investors must approach the market based on rigorous top-down location analysis rather than relying solely on macroeconomic indicators.

Should expectations for interest rate cuts materialize, real estate trading volume is highly likely to gain further momentum. Market participants should closely monitor the trend of the Jeonse-to-purchase price ratio and potential government policy shifts while maintaining strict risk management.